Western officials say
close to 200,000
Russians may have been killed
or wounded in the last year of fighting
in Ukraine.
Ukrainian casualties
are estimated around 100,000,
not including civilians.
Now, after a relatively quiet
winter on the front,
a new Russian
offensive appears
to be underway in the east.
Defense Secretary Lloyd
Austin says he also expects
the Ukrainians
to mount their own
offensive in the spring.
So which side is better
positioned to make gains?
Joining me is Ryan Evans, founde
of the media organization
War on the Rocks.
And Michael Kaufman,
who hosts the Russia Contingency
at War on the Rocks
and is a research program
director in the Russia Studies
Program at the think tank Sea.
And a thank you both for joining
You are my Go-To is on all thing
all things war related.
So I appreciate your time today.
Mike, I’m going to begin with you
because as noted, it appears
that Russia’s offensive has begu
You believe that it will remain
focused in the east, in Donbas.
As you know, there have been rep
that that Russia has far
greater ambitions,
perhaps even making another atte
at Kiev.
Why do you think this offensive
will be more muted?
So I think the
offensive actually began
several weeks ago,
and it’s been in progress for so
Solely focused on the Donbas.
There are at least five differen
and some attack
the Russian
military is pursuing right now.
It appears that Russia,
no war aims remain capturing the
in terms of Russian
military offensive potential.
It’s rather constrained.
And just looking
at the last couple of weeks,
they’re having a pretty hard tim
in this offensive
then and have not made significa
I likely think
it’s going to go on through Marc
although it may increase in
overall intensity.
It’s not clear
that the Russian military
has yet committed reserves
to try to exploit
any any one of the directions
in which they’re attacking.
And on that point,
Ryan, over the past few months,
there have been changes in milit
leadership in Russia.
There have been more conscripts
thrown in,
as many as 300,000
going back to last September.
Obviously,
Wagner Group is putting in convi
into battle as well.
And there’s talks
of even more conscription to com
That aside,
here is how Joint
Chiefs Chairman Milley character
the situation this week.
Here’s what he said.
He said Russia has lost
strategically, operationally
and tactically.
And in addition,
Undersecretary of State
Victoria Nuland
has called this new offensive
very pathetic.
Are they right or in your view,
is that a premature assessment?
I think this war has
clearly been a disaster for Russ
But Russia’s theory of victory,
such as it is,
is that it can outlast
the Western coalition
that is backing Ukraine.
And there are some signs
that that coalition is starting
And I think a lot depends,
especially if this war drags on
what happens in our next electio
cycle in the United States,
as well as elections
and among key European states
that are our partners
and are also backing Ukraine.
So Putin
thinks he can just outwait that
Whether that’s true
is remains to be seen.
Yeah. Time perhaps is on his side
is how he’s viewing get at least
What are some of the biggest cha
that Ukraine is facing right now
So I think
for Ukraine, the
challenges right
now, how to defend
against the Russian offensive
while keeping
a substantial amount of forces i
to conduct their own
major operation later this sprin
I think, as always,
they’re working with issues
of force quality.
Both sides have significant
levels of casualties as the war
Often you lose your best people,
your best equipment.
So it’s a challenge
to replace those individuals
in order to be capable of conduc
offensive operations.
I think like any military,
they face shortages
when it comes to equipment or am
And if you look over the past ye
a lot of Western military
assistance has been critical.
But it’s come at a point
where we’re sort of just in time
for Ukrainian needs
rather than necessarily leading
And I think that that remains
an enduring challenge in this co
And Mike, sticking with you.
Ukraine has finally gained
those Western takes
and that has received
a lot of media attention, though
You view this as more of a symbo
for the country.
Going back to the ammunition in
defense that Ukraine
desperately needs as well,
How concerned are you about the
that can be delivered
and the time in which it can be
delivered for Ukraine?
Sure.
So.
First and foremost, I think
air defense,
air defense, ammunition,
artillery ammunition
remain the top two priorities
for Ukraine.
And everything else
is probably secondary relative t
in terms of quantity,
You know, Ukrainian
military is artillery, heavy arm
So they require substantial amou
of artillery ammunition
just to sustain the war,
but especially
if they’re going to go on to the
offensive in the spring.
Same thing goes for air
defense to make sure
that Russian airpower
does not become effective
in this conflict at any point
with regards to military equipme
and the assistance factors
it was providing January.
It will take some months
for that equipment to not arrive
but for Ukrainians to be trained
on that equipment, sufficient qu
And Ryan,
there’s a legitimate concern
about the stockpiles available,
both in reserves in Western coun
and the ability
with which defense companies
can produce them
in time for Ukraine,
particularly regards to it
for ammunition
Is Russia facing
similar shortages and issues?
Russia is absolutely facing
similar shortages and issues.
But unlike the United States, Ru
doesn’t have to worry about othe
And other global commitments,
whereas the United States has to
and able to conduct operations e
Let’s say, for example,
if China attacks Taiwan.
But what this is really drawing
attention to,
especially among a lot of my col
is how brittle the US industrial
especially when it comes
to producing things like
artillery, ammunition
and other forms of ammunition
and even gunpowder
I think a lot of your viewers
would be surprised
how few facilities
actually produce these things
in the United States.
Ryan, Putin
has toned down his wildly exagge
and I would just say
irresponsible nuclear threats
that we had heard a few months a
That having been said,
I know you were one to argue
that we shouldn’t
dismiss the threat
of a tactical nuclear weapon bei
What do you see in the months ah
as in terms of
the threat assessment
that that Putin could, in fact,
return to that?
I think Putin’s
strategy is primarily, first
and foremost driven
by his sense of regime security.
And if he views that security at
I think he’s more likely to take
reckless acts.
And one thing that we’ve seen fr
Putin is he’s actually a very po
of how his adversaries
and even his partners
like China
will react to his risky gambits.
So I think that he’s still got
a few really bad decisions left
And I wouldn’t
put it past him to escalate
to low yield
nuclear use on the battlefield.
And not just one, but perhaps se
especially if there’s major setb
for Russian forces on the battle
I still think it’s a low
probability event,
but I think it’s something
that we have to take seriously
and not just dismiss out of hand
Yeah, it’s not zero.
I mean, the probability is not z
that that could take place.
Mike, finally, I’ll close with y
It doesn’t appear,
unfortunately, that this war
is going to end anytime soon.
What will it take for that to ha
And I would imagine you agree
it’s not probably going to be th
Yeah, I doubt it will take.
It will take place this year.
I mean, major interstate,
conventional wars of this kind,
they tend to cluster
broadly in two categories.
Often they tend to be either
rather short
lasting a few weeks or a few mon
or if they go on for this long,
they typically go on
for at least several years.
What will it take for the war to
Well,
that’s a difficult question to a
I mean, it can range anything
from Ukrainian military success
to being perhaps
a more pessimistic variant where
at the end of the day,
what emerges as some sort of
an unhappy stalemate on the batt
Or to be perfectly frank,
the way the war could progress
is that the ending doesn’t resol
any of the fundamental issues
in this war.
That’s often
they would happen in 2014 2015.
Those wars are a continuation of
of the original Russian
invasion in Ukraine.
And how it ends
could potentially result in yet
another war.
Often these conflicts
go on series
where neither party
is able to obtain what they want
So the folks who push
for an early negotiation,
perhaps a contrived armistice
of some kind on the one hand
that’s a laudable pursuit.
By the other hand,
at this stage it’s clear
that it would most likely result
in Russia trying to rearm
and then pursuing the war yet ag
Right.
And so an artificial peace
is very likely to yield to yet
another war.
Yeah, you’re right.
To point out this war
didn’t start
as many people may think it did
last year.
It started several years prior t
Mike, Coffman, Ryan,
thank you so much for your time.
I’m looking forward to your futu
conversations and podcast.
We’re having you. Thanks for hav
